{"created":"2023-11-07T04:56:41.023677+00:00","id":2000055,"links":{},"metadata":{"_buckets":{"deposit":"896c45db-fdc1-4d0f-9ca8-72cc6e03d947"},"_deposit":{"created_by":10,"id":"2000055","owner":"10","owners":[10],"pid":{"revision_id":0,"type":"depid","value":"2000055"},"status":"published"},"_oai":{"id":"oai:takushoku-u.repo.nii.ac.jp:02000055","sets":["2:23:24:1699332711210"]},"author_link":["723","724"],"control_number":"2000055","item_10002_biblio_info_7":{"attribute_name":"書誌情報","attribute_value_mlt":[{"bibliographicIssueDates":{"bibliographicIssueDate":"2023-10-31","bibliographicIssueDateType":"Issued"},"bibliographicIssueNumber":"124","bibliographicPageEnd":"13","bibliographicPageStart":"5","bibliographic_titles":[{"bibliographic_title":"拓殖大学経営経理研究","bibliographic_titleLang":"ja"},{"bibliographic_title":"Takushoku University research in management and accounting","bibliographic_titleLang":"en"}]}]},"item_10002_description_5":{"attribute_name":"抄録","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"コンテナ輸送量や市況の需要側の予測では輸入国側の景気動向を参考指標として用いることがある。しかし，近年における経済成長に対するコンテナ輸送の対応の鈍化は輸入側の実質GDPとコンテナ輸送量を結びつけるような比較的シンプルな予測モデルの在り方を難しいものにしている。著者が取り組んできた研究では，これまで多く用いられてきたデータや時系列分析の手法に加え，機械学習などのより新しい手法を用いて，実務者がコンパクトに使える，コンテナ輸送の荷動きや運賃を予測できるモデルを構築することを第一の目的にしている。この論文では，上記の研究目的に則した（1）荷動きに関するVARモデルと（2）機械学習ベースのコンテナ運賃予測と時系列ベースの予測の比較について現在の状況を報告する。（1）の分析の結果，中国から輸出される貨物では，住宅関連製品の割合が高いため，建築許可件数の影響が大きく，その影響は14ヶ月と中国出荷の中では最も長い期間続くことが示されている。（2）の分析の結果，第一に，コンテナ市況の予測精度を向上させるという点で，洞察をもたらす知見を得た。第二に，対応するコンテナ船市場の運賃動向の理解に役立ち，海運部門における意思決定の合理性を高める点で有用性があることを示せた。第三に，運賃先渡契約やその他のリスクヘッジのための運賃デリバティブへの投資に対して有用な分析方法を提示できた。","subitem_description_language":"ja","subitem_description_type":"Abstract"}]},"item_10002_full_name_3":{"attribute_name":"著者（英）","attribute_value_mlt":[{"familyNames":[{}],"givenNames":[{}],"nameIdentifiers":[{}],"names":[{"name":"Matsuda, Takuma","nameLang":"en"}]}]},"item_10002_publisher_8":{"attribute_name":"出版者","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_publisher":"拓殖大学経営経理研究所"}]},"item_10002_source_id_9":{"attribute_name":"ISSN","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"13490281","subitem_source_identifier_type":"ISSN"}]},"item_10002_subject_21":{"attribute_name":"日本十進分類法","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_subject":"681.6","subitem_subject_scheme":"NDC"}]},"item_10002_text_24":{"attribute_name":"種別","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"論文 / Article"}]},"item_10002_version_type_20":{"attribute_name":"著者版フラグ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_version_resource":"http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85","subitem_version_type":"VoR"}]},"item_creator":{"attribute_name":"著者","attribute_type":"creator","attribute_value_mlt":[{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"松田, 琢磨","creatorNameLang":"ja"},{"creatorName":"マツダ, タクマ","creatorNameLang":"ja-Kana"}],"familyNames":[{},{}],"givenNames":[{},{}],"nameIdentifiers":[{}]}]},"item_files":{"attribute_name":"ファイル情報","attribute_type":"file","attribute_value_mlt":[{"accessrole":"open_access","date":[{"dateType":"Available","dateValue":"2023-11-07"}],"filename":"kk0124_01.pdf","filesize":[{"value":"1.9 MB"}],"format":"application/pdf","mimetype":"application/pdf","url":{"label":"世界の海上コンテナ輸送市場における予測モデルに関する研究","url":"https://takushoku-u.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/2000055/files/kk0124_01.pdf"},"version_id":"b3775f2c-7a95-4de9-9fbd-91991bc37a44"}]},"item_keyword":{"attribute_name":"キーワード","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_subject":"コンテナ輸送","subitem_subject_language":"ja","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"時系列分析","subitem_subject_language":"ja","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"機械学習","subitem_subject_language":"ja","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"コンテナ市場","subitem_subject_language":"ja","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"}]},"item_language":{"attribute_name":"言語","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_language":"jpn"}]},"item_resource_type":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"resourcetype":"departmental bulletin paper","resourceuri":"http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501"}]},"item_title":"世界の海上コンテナ輸送市場における予測モデルに関する研究","item_titles":{"attribute_name":"タイトル","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_title":"世界の海上コンテナ輸送市場における予測モデルに関する研究","subitem_title_language":"ja"},{"subitem_title":"Research on Forecasting Models in the Container Shipping Market","subitem_title_language":"en"}]},"item_type_id":"10002","owner":"10","path":["1699332711210"],"pubdate":{"attribute_name":"PubDate","attribute_value":"2023-11-07"},"publish_date":"2023-11-07","publish_status":"0","recid":"2000055","relation_version_is_last":true,"title":["世界の海上コンテナ輸送市場における予測モデルに関する研究"],"weko_creator_id":"10","weko_shared_id":-1},"updated":"2023-12-20T06:37:59.182199+00:00"}